Infinite Jets

Well, its been a while since if dusted off the old keyboard and treated you all to another blog post (3 years and change by my count), and while a lot has changed, especially in the sports landscape, there are still things that hold true day in and day out.  One such truth is that the Jets and Patriots will square off this weekend in what will be another close game.  Even if the Pats have owned the series the past four seasons, winning seven of the last eight match ups with the last Jets victory coming in 2013, Big Green always manages to play the Evil Empire close.  In fact, last season saw both games come down to the wire with the Patriots narrowly escaping the woeful Jets both times.  Well, this year might be a different story as the Jets are 4-1 for the first time since 2010 (also the year of the biggest Jets win over the Pats in team history) and look to end Tommy and Bills shot at the perfect season as they head into Foxborough for a 1 PM kickoff on Sunday.

This new Jets regime has hit the ground running (literally), well exceeding any expectations through the first quarter of the season. Todd Bowles has created an AFC contender (a bit of a stretch) and he's using the tough nosed defense and ground-n-pound approach that was so successful in Arizona.  Sure, Rex Ryan claimed to use that approach as well, but at the end of the day, Ryan had no idea how to coach an offense, whereas Bowles has given Chan Gailey and Fitzmagic the reins to make the plays.

Final Fantasy

I'm not sure if I speak for everyone here, but man is it hard to play fantasy football these days.  For anyone who's been playing for the past five plus years, you can probably agree with me on this one.  NFL teams were structured very differently and thus draft strategies were much more reliable.  In the early to mid 2000s a typical NFL offense was basically a quarterback, a running back, two wide receivers and a tight end; simple.  No matter which positions you went with first on draft day, there was one thing you could count on: consistency. Your wide receivers were going to get heavily targeted and you could expect your running back, regardless of team, to get 20-30 carries per game, but the game has changed and fantasy rosters everywhere are struggling because of it.  Here's my theory on why:

As a result of the increasing concerns with player safety, certain rule changes have been implemented over the past few years to help protect players, particularly players on offense.  Since the majority of "defenseless" players happen to be the guys catching high passes in mid-air, many of these rules had a positive effect on passing offense.  This is evidenced by the jump in quarterback's passing yardage.  In 2011 six quarterbacks threw for more than 4,500 yards, three of which threw for over 5,000 yards with two (Tom Brady and Drew Brees) breaking Dan Marino's single season passing record of  5,084 yards set in 1984.  At a glance this seems like a good thing, more passing yards means more wide receiver yardage for fantasy teams, right? Actually, no, that's wrong.  Because defensive backs are forced to play receivers more conservatively, the art of getting open in coverage has become less of a necessity.  This results in players all over the field having an easier time getting open, not just the studs on the team, and thus the ball is getting spread around to multiple players in an offense.

Football offenses are also constantly changing, on both the collegiate and professional level.  Since 2000 we have seen the fun-and-gun West Coast offense transform into the gimmicky wildcat offense which eventually paved the way for the spread offense, which many NFL teams are using in some modified way today.  Instead of your standard two or three wide receiver sets, coaches are experimenting with four or five wide receiver sets, even lining their running backs up at wide receiver.  The increase in the amount of wide receivers on the field at one time decreases the chances of one guy getting the ball, they see less targets. I did a little research and found that in 2006 there were 10 wide receivers who were targeted more than 150 times while in 2011, only 5 wide receivers saw more than 150 targets.  This could lead to less yardage, but more importantly, less touchdown production for a particular player.

A prime example would be the Green Bay Packers, a prolific passing offense over the past few years who routinely line up with four or five wide receivers (The Saints would have worked well here too, but since I have Randall Cobb on my fantasy team this year, this example is more relevant to me. Sorry, Black and Gold fans).  When they get down into the red zone it is literally anybody's guess on who is going to get the touchdown.  This becomes very unfortunate for those who took Greg Jennings in their draft (A top-5 receiver my most accounts).

I know I've been rambling here, but I haven't even mention the running game yet.  Running backs have become just as unreliable in terms of consistency.  Why, you ask? Because so many teams have started to use multiple guys in the backfield instead of just one solid go-to like in the old days.  Even quarterbacks are getting involved in the ground game and are taking away star running backs touches.  A perfect example this season would be the Carolina Panthers.  The Panthers have such a crowded backfield that it isn't even amusing.  Three running backs (De'angelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert) all who have had pronounced success in the league are stuck fighting for carries on a weekly basis.  Each one of these guys is good enough to carry a team and be an RB1, but in this situation, they all become essentially worthless.  Couple this with the fact that they have one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL, in Cam Newton (who in addition was essentially the teams goal line back last season) and this becomes a recipe for disaster.

This isn't a unique situation either as the majority of NFL teams have switched to this multi-back system.  It is literally a nightmare for fantasy owners.  Even the top-rated fantasy running back, Arian Foster is not exempt from this.  Last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Foster had not one, but two touchdowns taken away from him by his back-up, Ben Tate.  In the old days this simply would not be an issue.  You knew that your first overall pick (Adrian Peterson, LaDanian Tomlinson, whoever) was going to get the rock and was going to get 90% of the scoring opportunities.  The idea of "touchdown vultures" was hardly as real a threat as it is today.

So how do we fix this fantasy foible?  The answer might be in switching to a more generic form of drafting, where players take entire offensive units instead of individual players.  It's like, we know the Saints and the Packers are going to have great passing offenses, so how about we have "Packers Wide Receivers" as a draft choice.  What's that, you say? The Texans have one of the best rushing tandem's in the NFL? Well then I'd sure think about spending my first overall pick on "Texans Running Backs." Problem solved, right?  No more chomping on finger nails when its 1st and Goal on the 1-yard line and you see Ben Tate lined up in the backfield instead of Arian Foster, praying that Tate gets hit behind the line of scrimmage.  No more restless nights waiting for your waiver claim for Andre Brown to go through because the ever-questionable Amhad Bradshaw went down and is a scratch for the week.  Shouldn't fantasy players be rewarded for their preseason team knowledge instead of being hindered by dumb luck?  I say, maybe its time to consider it.

Switching to this style of draft format could also help the game reach demographics once though untouchable or help grow ones just catching on.  Over the past few years, fantasy football has seen a spike in female participation, that's for sure, but women, for the most part, just don't obsess over sports the way guys do (yes there are exceptions to this rule, but generally speaking, I take this to be true).  This has made it difficult to integrate women into the world of fantasy football.  Think about it, your girlfriend probably doesn't know who the fourth or fifth wide receiver on a given team is, or who Arian Foster's back up is.  If he goes down, shes probably screwed as one of your guy friends will swoop in and claim Ben Tate off waivers.  All this is to say, wouldn't interest level's go up if instead we could draft a whole unit?  Don't you think your girlfriend would be that much more interested in a game knowing that if the Texans' scored a rushing touchdown she was going to get points instead of reading the back of the jersey to make sure it was her guy?  This could lead to significant financial gains for the sport as a result of demographic diversification.

Would this change the way we prepare for drafts? Yes it would, the aspect of "sleepers"(undervalued players who end up having a significant impact on your team) would disappear and the idea of "hand-cuffing" (drafting a teams back-up in case the starter you drafted gets injured) becomes irrelevant.  The much loved waiver wire would essentially disappear as well, a sad day for many fantasy lifers.  I guess it comes down to weighing the pros and cons of both systems.  Would I want to switch to this format?  Probably not at the moment, but as the game continues to change and player production becomes more and more of a crap shoot, it might be the only thing saving the beloved faux-sport from extinction.

Moon Jocks

 Fellow O's fans, please take a moment to rejoice with me.  I think most of us were still in elementary school the last time there was a buzz like this around the Orange and Black.  Despite all the odds, this team just keeps on winning with each win more exciting than the next (and this is without "Mr. Excitement" George Sherrill on the roster!). In a season full of extra innings wins (13 straight wins, to be exact) and late-game comebacks (ESPN actually did a Top-10 Orioles moments Thursday on Sportscenter), the O's added another instant classic to the books Thursday night.

It was a beautiful evening at a sold out Camden Yards; for the first time in ages 46,298 mostly Orioles fans flocked for Cal Ripken night-the 17th anniversary of the night Ripken broke Lou Gehrig's record of consecutive games played.  On this night of all nights, the surging Orioles took to the skies in a 10-6 series opening victory against the rival Yankees, claiming a share of the AL East lead in the process.  If you've been to any O's games against AL East rivals over the past decade, you all know the story: Camden turns into either Yankee Stadium or Fenway "south" with few scattered O's fans perched among the away team's fan base.  I can't even tell you the last time I was at an O's game where it actually felt like a home game.  But last night's atmosphere was playoff electric, as the team put on quite the show for the Orioles' faithful.

The O's came charging out of the gate, jumping to a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the 1st inning off of a three-run moon-shot by catcher Matt Wieters.  Pitcher Jason Hammel, who the O's traded for this offseason took the mound for the first time in two months and made everyone remember how important he's been to this team.  Hammel was the teams unquestioned ace heading into the All-Star break, but he was downed in mid July with a knee injury and has been sidelined ever since.  In his first game back from the DL, Hammel looked like his first-half self going five strong innings, giving up one run while striking out six.  The O's added a couple of insurance home runs in the fourth and sixth innings from Robert Andino and Mark Reynolds, respectively, giving them a cushy 6-1 lead headed into the eighth inning.  For an Orioles bullpen that has been nothing short of dominant this season, this should have made for an easy victory, but then the experienced Yankees decided to power on their bats.

In what was easily the most exciting and dramatic inning of the game, the memorable eighth started out just as it should have: two-up, two-down. Newly acquired starter-turned-reliever Randy Wolf came in for Hammel in the 6th inning and was headed for his third scoreless inning of the night before things started to unravel.  With two outs, Wolf walked Nick Swisher, then allowed a double to Alex Rodriguez, scoring swisher.  After another walk, Wolf allowed an RBI single to Curtis Granderson to pull the Yanks within three runs.  "So what?" I thought,they just needed one more out and then it was time to bring out All-Star closer Jim Johnson in the ninth to notch the save.  The Yankees still had a ways to go.  After allowing three runs in the bottom third of the inning, Wolf was pulled for Pedro Strop, a wily young reliever who, like the rest of the bullpen, has been lights out all season.  I started in my head "OK, here we go, one out Strop, you can do this." Not so fast.  Strop uncharacteristically issued back to back walks including a bases-loaded walk to bring the Yanks with in two. The next batter was Ichiro, who singled and tied the game at six apiece.  I was furious, how could this have happened?  How could the Orioles have blown a five run lead in the eighth inning? This was a team that had compiled a 60-0 record when leading after seven innings, was that all about to change?

Not so fast.  Much like the first inning, the Orioles would not be quieted. Adam Jones, the first batter of the inning sent the crowd into a frenzy as he launched a ball over the left field wall to break the tie: 7-6 O's (He was even rewarded with the customary post-game pie to the face).  A wave of relief came over me, then joy as I realized the O's may have just pulled yet another rabbit out of this hat that is the 2012 MLB season, but it wasn't over yet.  Matt Wieters singled on the first pitch he saw and then the ridiculously streaking Mark Reynolds hit another home run to give the birds a 9-6 lead, his second of the night. Reynolds might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now.  He has 8 home runs in his last seven games including three straight multi-homer games against the Yankees. After Reynold's late-game heroics, Chris Davis hit a first pitch bomb to the right field stands to cap off a four run inning and gave the O's their cushy lead right back.  It was the Orioles' sixth home run of the night and first six-homer game since August 28, 2007 against the Rays.  Jim Johnson came in to close out the ninth and give the O's the victory.

Baltimore (77-60) has won 10 of their past 13 games, including three of four over the rival Yankees. They can taste the playoffs on the tip of their tongues, and with their next six games against the Yankees and Rays, the O's can get themselves into the drivers seat heading into the final stretch of the season. I can hardly believe I'm even writing this, I mean, it's almost mid-September and the Orioles are in first place in arguably the toughest division in baseball.  This is a team that has spent the last decade and a half in the basement of the League, who was picked by many to finish at the bottom once again this season, but Buck Showalter has proven why he is hands down the best manager in baseball right now and has taken a young, inexperienced, hodge-podge of a team and turned them into serious contenders.  This has to be the most excited I have ever been as an O's fan, lets' keep the momentum going and look forward to an October that no one in Baltimore should ever forget.

Fore! Introducing PigSkinGolf

I wanted to take a moment to get the word out to all my faithful readers on a new NFL Pick'em style game called PigSkinGolf.  Its a cutting-edge take on the classic weekly pick'em and is loaded with opportunities to win cash prizes.

The story of PigSkinGolf began with a man named Brian Berry, who seven years ago became jaded with the same old office pick'em pool which he participated in year after year with co-workers.  Being an avid golf fan, Berry came up with an idea, a method of transferring success in an NFL pick'em into a score similar to playing a traditional 72 hole game of golf.  After letting a few friends in on his idea, Berry's game became popular in his circle.  Word of the game continued to spread until three years ago, when Berry decided to push it into the mainstream.  He set up a website and started promoting his game across the country.  Today, the game holds participants from 46 states across the US, included Alaska and Hawaii and continues to grow in number each season.

As the name implies, PigSkinGolf takes on a golf-based scoring system contingent upon the correct number of NFL games picked each week, where players will pick winners for the full slate of games. What separates this from other pick'ems is that depending on the number of games available in a given week, a certain number of correct games are established to reach "par"  for that week. For example, a full 16-game week establishes par at twelve correct picks,  anything better would improve your score (birdie, eagle, etc) while anything worse would hinder it (bogie, double bogie, etc). During Bye weeks, par is set lower since there are fewer games to pick.  At the end of every week the players' score is tallied like a golf score based on the set par for that week.  Your score carries to the following week.  The 18 "holes" are comprised of the 17 weeks of the regular season, with the 18th hole representing the entire post-season.   It's new, its exciting and it involves the NFL people, and did I mention, there is Cash Money involved here?

Players can either sign up for the Blue Tees ($50.00 registration, higher prize money) or White Tees ($25.00 registration) prior to the start of the regular season and have several opportunities to win prizes throughout the course of the season.  Prizes are awarded three different times throughout the season:, after week six, after week 12 and after the playoffs with 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place payouts for both the Blue and White Tees players.  In addition, players who place 1st-3rd overall at the end of the season win cash prizes with 1st place taking the Grand Prize. Finally, a $100 "bonus" is awarded to the player who earns the most "birdies" during the season.

PigSkinGolf also offers a traditional survivor game that can be played for an additional $25.00 sign up fee(with price reductions for additional entries).  The premise is pretty simple: Players have to pick one game each week, while trying to survive the entire season.  Once you lose you're out, and here's the kicker-you can only use each team once.  Strategy really comes into play with this game (nobody wants to be stuck with only bad teams remaining by the middle of the season) so a lot of picks really must be made based on the weekly match-ups.  The Grand Prize for this game is $5,000 with the winners splitting the pot in equal parts however, taking a page straight from "Who Wants to be a Millionaire," there are buyout options throughout the season as well.  If you make it to week 10, you can opt to take $500 and exit the game, if you make it to week 13 you get the same offer but with a $1,000 prize.  To the player or players who successfully pick all the way through the regular season, the Grand Prize is awarded.

Guys, I typically dont to promo's for my blog, but this is an up coming game that I feel has a shot to really take off over the next couple of years.  Get in on the ground floor and play a round this season, while there's still time.

For more information, or to sign up and play, visit www.pigskingolf.com before 9-5-12

Back to the Beltway

Any idea who the two hottest teams in baseball are right now?  If you had to guess at the beginning of the season, I'm betting nobody would have said the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles, but its true.  Surprisingly, both teams are on five game winning streaks and both teams are on the right side of 60 wins.  At this time last year, both of these teams were under .500 and well out of the playoff race.  Last season, the Nats (currently 68-43, best record in the majors) didn't win their 60th game until August 20th, and the as for the O's, well it took them until September 15th to notch win number 60 (they won a total of 69 games).  It's finally happening people.  It took fifteen years, but it looks like baseball is back in a big way around the beltway, and its about time.

The Washington/Baltimore corridor has always had a rich baseball history and passionate fan bases.  The Nationals were one of baseball's original teams, founded in 1899, and were home to one of the greatest pitchers of all time-Walter Johnson.  Behind Johnson's arm, the Nats (or Senators) won their only World Series in 1924.  Unfortunately, their 61 year tenure in Washington ended in 1960 when the team was moved to Minnesota.  Fortunately for baseball  fans, a new team had moved into the area six years earlier.   The St, Louis Browns were relocated to Baltimore in 1954 and renamed the Orioles in honor of the Maryland state bird.  The move to Baltimore was beneficial for the team as the Orioles spent the next four decades as a model franchise, keeping a stranglehold on the AL East and winning three World Series (1966, 1970 and 1983).  In 1992, the Orioles built one of the finest ballparks in the Majors in Camden Yards.  Cal Ripken led the team and their new ballpark to consecutive playoff appearances in 1996 and 1997, with 1996 being particularly heartbreaking.  In Game One of the ALCS, a young Derek Jeter stepped up to the plate, bottom of the eighth, with the O's leading 4-3...and then this happens (scroll to # 5).  Known by many as the "Jeffery Maier incident" this event set the tone for the rest of the series, which the O's would lose and begin a fifteen year downward spiral for the club.

That was the last taste of baseball related success the Washington DC area would get for a long, long time.   Since 1997, the Orioles have not finished with a .500 record.  That's 15 years of losing!  Meanwhile,  the return of baseball to DC in 2005 with the relocation of the Montreal Expos (now your Washington Nationals) was an exciting time for the area.  Finally, after years of fighting, the DC area would get its own team once again, and the 2005 team was surprisingly...um surprising, going 81-81, a clean .500 record to close out the season. The only .500 season  either team would have since 1997.  Now, in 2012, both of these teams are at the top of their respective leagues and have the playoffs firmly in their cross hairs.  So what's happened over the last season that has reinvigorated these once-struggling clubs?

I think a lot of people saw this coming for the Nationals.  Building around prized third basemen Ryan Zimmerman, the Nats' front office had been aggressive the past two off-seasons, signing the likes of Jason Werth, Gio Gonzalez, Adam LaRoche and Edwin Jackson. In addition, the recent draft luck the team has had netted back-to-back first overall picks which they turned into phenoms Steven Strasburg and Bryce Harper.  Finally, the team has developed many young players through their system as well which as led to unexpected successes from the likes of Ian Desmond, Mike Morse, Danny Espinosa, Jordan Zimmermann and Tyler Clippard.


Yes, the Nats have gone through the rebuilding process the right way.  They made smart off-season moves and hit on some draft picks and now they are built to be a contender for the next five or six seasons.  They currently hold the best record in baseball at 68-43 and have been getting the job done on both sides of the ball.   Over the course of the season, the Nats have outscored their opponents by 85 runs while maintaining the lowest team ERA (3.26) in the National League.  It sounds pretty cut and dry to me:  If you have the best pitching in your league while scoring the second most runs in your league, then you are going to have a monster record.

The Orioles, on the other hand, have not been so straight forward with their success. I hate to admit it, but before the season started, fresh off their preseason loss to The State College of Florida, Manatee-Sarasota chapter (I believe the Yahoo! Sports headline read "Orioles Humiliated By Community College"), I predicted that the O's would finish with the worst record in the AL, yet again.  This was a team in a decade-long downward spiral, full of terrible off season moves and one busted draft pick after another.  On paper, this season doesn't really look all that different from the past.  When you look at their numbers, the Orioles are either mediocre or sub-par across the board.  In contrast to the Nats' +85 run differential, the Orioles differential is a dismal -47, meaning they have been outscored this season by 47 total runs.   Since the modern baseball era, only four teams with a negative run differential have ever made the playoffs.  Four!  The team is also very middle of the road in team ERA, (currently at 4.06, good for 9th in the AL) The fact that the Orioles are still in this thing is astonishing in itself.

So how have they been able to do it?  I don't know if there really is an explanation for it.  There's really only one place where the O's stand out from the rest of the pack, and that's winning the close games.  The Orioles have won a franchise record 12 straight extra innings games (12-2 on the season) and have amassed a 22-7 record in one-run games.  When their backs are against the wall, they seem to be able to make the right plays to win games. This "will-to-win" mentality was something this Orioles team had instilled in them by one of the game's best manager's, Buck Showalter.  When he agreed to take the job for the Orioles at the end of the 2010 season, I  blogged that it was the most important move the Orioles had made in the past decade, and so far, I've been right.

Showalter is a master of the game, an old-school manager who likes to play the percentages and puts an emphasis on small-ball principles. Where starting pitching has struggled, Showalter has compensated by grooming one of the finest bullpens in the AL.  A healthy stable of Troy Patton, Matt Lindstrom, Darren O'Day, Luis Ayala, Pedro Strop, and All-Star Closer Jim Johnson have been cause for a bevy of nightmarish match-ups for opposing teams.  With some many successful arms in the pen, its hard for teams to adjust and allows for the O's to stay alive late in games.   As a result, when the team is in a close game, they come up with a way to win.  You can call it luck some of the time, but I think the managing know-how of Showalter has shown how important a manager can be to a game.  Could he be the teams best player?  I think you could make an argument for it.

Yes, it looks like both the Orioles and the Nationals have finally turned a corner.  The O's may be a little behind the Nats' curve, but they have some very promising prospects in their system.  2010 1st round pick Manny Machado (3rd overall) will make his major league debut tonight as the O's take on Kansas City, with hopes of adding some speed to a team who is at the bottom of the league in stolen bases.  In addition, 2011 1st round pick Dylan Bundy (4th overall) has been lighting it up in the minors.  This kid has the potential to be a Strasburg lite with a fastball consistently breaking 100mph.  Along with other future stars, it looks like both the O's and the Nats have the tools to be contenders for seasons to come.  This season however, everyone is thinking one thing: Playoffs.  When it's all said and done and the 2012 season is in the books, Washington area fans can finally look back fondly on a season and hopefully look forward to a successful October.